I recently read an interesting opinion piece in Sky and Telescope magazine. The author, David Grinspoon, made the case that by "By neglecting Venus, we could lose valuable knowledge about earth." (Podcast of the article here.)According to Mr. Grinspoon, NASA recently selected a round of projects for preliminary funding and none of the seven Venus related projects were selected. Venus, in fact, hasn't been the subject of a NASA mission since 1989.
What I found most interesting though, is his description of how Venus has found itself at the bottom of the project selection food chain. Grinspoon asserts that, while NASA generally selects projects well, Venus research is on the verge of a "death spiral". There is no spacecraft currently exploring Venus, and it is unlikely there will be one in the next 10 years. The cycle of Venus neglect was laid out as follows: 1)NASA research dollars follow its current missions, 2) Since there are no current Venus projects underway, astronomy students do not focus on Venus studies, 3) This leads to fewer advocates for Venus projects, 4) Which makes it harder to develop quality Venus project proposals, 5) Wash, rinse, repeat.
This article got me thinking about how projects are selected for funding in general. One of the benefits of working on both private and public sector projects is witnessing the difference in how and why projects are selected. At the risk of over generalizing, the private sector is looking for that all elusive ROI (Return on Investment) and the public sector is looking for ways to best meet its mission on a tight budget. Two things that are pervasive in both though, is the risk of "sticker shock", and that those of us that build business cases and proposals for projects are required to estimate the cost and duration of tasks while there are still a great deal of unknowns. Then, we are often pressured to bring those estimates down over the fear the project won't get funded because the estimated costs and durations will be perceived by decision makers as too costly and expensive. Is it any surprise then, when such projects have budget and cost overruns once the rubber hits the road?
Photo Credit (of Venus): National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
